Some Western state knew something for some time – but took their time, casually plodding along regardless. They now have gained a wake-up call.
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The over-reliance on Russia for Gas and oil has been a long acknowledged issue but many states for political and financial reasons, were in no rush hurry to major change that direction of trade.
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The Russian invasion of Ukraine has changed all that. Now things are vastly being sped up. Deals once sanctioned either other countries such as Iran, etc, are now being reassessed as alternative oil/gas sources are sought.
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Quick imposed sanctions on Russia has made it too reassess where it sells its goods. For example, they have upped trade deals with China and India. If the West ends buying oil amounts becomes real, Russia has said it will turn off its Western gas line too. This will hit all EU states but by far, Germany the most.
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Whatever happens in the short run, because of the Ukraine invasion and a wake-up call created by it, Russia has in part, done Western states and USA a long-term big favour – while also in part, managing to long-term shoot themselves in their Russian foot.
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Even if warring events were to end tomorrow, Western states will still up their seeking of alternative natural resources from others. Russia could recover its future sales numbers to some extent but the damage is already done. Western states will continue now to wean themselves away from Russia dependencies.
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Putin has made Russia a far more isolated state than ever before in modern world history. The long-term effects of one man’s agenda and possible ego, will have decades of ramifications for his many millions of people. The damage is done. It will be extremely hard to go back to the way things previously were. The Western states will continue their alternative searching and buying. They won’t want to be resource trapped again.