Local Election Facts And Distracts.

For those interested in politics, this article will once again be like previous others, be brutally honest.
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The claim that Sinn Fein has sunk by FG, FF and media journalists that back them, comes from polls that – in theory – had them supposedly high in public opinion . Truthfully, these were
1. Supposed indications of public views that were at best…
2. Based on small group polling of 1,000+ people, supposedly random selected.
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SIDE NOTE: When in timing a person is asked, where they are asked, how they are asked, etc, makes a huge difference.
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Of the small sample polls that were done, the Irish Times, The Journal, The Indo’ – etc – are perceived by many to be favouring FF/FG regularly. So, based in that alone, here is a notion…
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What if the polls that they did, deliberately put SF initially high in numbers so that at a more appropriate time, they could later claim that those numbers dropped – so that they can claim with artificial legitimacy that “Support for Sinn Fein has dropped”… It’s then good in PR for the parties they support – till an actual election comes along and FF/FG lose seats – which they actually did! OOPS!!!
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Even if the biased media outlets were not that Machiavellian in underhand tactics (they have plenty other tactics anyway), the fact is that in fact – and you can check this – Sinn Fein is actually UP in number of council seats gained.
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The “Sinn Fein Crash” is all based on
(a) a number of previous small polling’s done by outlets that quite frankly, many absolutely don’t trust anyway and
(b) artificial numbers that are only in the minds of people and not actual seats gained at the time of polling.
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Let me be clear – this is NOT an article in support of Sinn Fein or a sly attempt to support them. It’s a write-up to get some people back to reality based on actual on the ground fact. …And on the ground fact is that Sinn Fein HAS INCREASED the number of council seats compared to previously, by at least 18 seat MORE, on top of those held from previously.
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However, Fianna Fail are DOWN 25+ (a larger drop than SF’s actual rise) and as for Fine Gael, they are also DOWN at least 13 seats so far.
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So, what aren’t the government supporting papers and #RTE raising hell about why FF and FG has lost so many seats? Especially when FF alone has LOST more than SF has actually GAINED???
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Add in the fact that parochial voting and historic low turnout has not helped any of the parties, and what you get is
(a) an actual seat sign (not opinion thoughts from heads) that FF/FG (and Greens -24) is DOWN in public support while
(b) again giving a warning that theoretical poll question results put to people are quite often wrong anyway!
(Our recent referendum alone, is quick proof of that)
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Realising that seat numbers (compared to previous held) went also to the
* Social Democrats in GAIN (another extra 16+)
* Independent Ireland in GAIN (21 seats)
* People Before Profit – GAIN an extra 2
* Aontu GAIN an extra 4
…All on top of what they had prior held onto again…
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There is a core message to be possible taken for the fundamental wins and losses – and that is that people in Ireland are looking for change. They sure as hell are NOT giving power back to the usual bunch. The actual seat numbers bears this out.
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…But biased media are PR spinning things – in favour of the usual bunch – based around a so called artificial inflation of prior Sinn Fein polling numbers only!
…However, you are not supposed to cop the more, on-the-ground reality and a further citizen message that can be got from actual reality.
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Fianna Fail and Fine Gael for media, are basically saying “HA-HA Sinn Fein support has dropped”. Off camera, they know that they are actually DOWN themselves. They are NOT laughing at that. That down direction has them seriously worried but they won’t public admit this. Any significant real seat drop in numbers is worrying for any party. Let’s be real here too.
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This is why there will be no real rush by FF/FG/Green to seek an early general election. Although a local election must never be judged as the same as a general election, the still underlying worrying signs for some, is that people want new fresh alternative directions. The core numbers won and lost bear this out.
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Never trust theoretical poll numbers. Especially ones done in a questionable nature, by questionable outlets and where thereafter, they don’t tell full truths.
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PS. Will the gov’ go the full term? Unlikely. Timing is everything and FF/FG know not to send voters out into winter cold weather. One election factor of a few to take into account. FF/FG will call an early election at some point – but it won’t happen immediately.