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I should tell you from the start that this particular post will be of longer length than usual. It will contain a lot of information and facts.
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Ireland as part of the EU, has now been hit by Trump’s tariff craziness. Irish goods exported to America, will now be 20% more expensive. This means Irish goods will be more expensive for Americans to buy. Understandably, USA counter sales will drop. Irish exporting numbers of stock bulk, will also drop.
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Here are a few more numbers.
* Ireland dairy exports, for example, amounts to a billion Euro annually, to America.
* A billion+ Euro is also exported to the states, regarding drink sales annually.
* 32% of all Irish goods are exported to the US.
* 17% of our national imported goods, come from the US.
* 2.8 million people are employed in Ireland, making goods that were exported to the USA states.
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What does this all mean? Irish goods will be stock ordered less in quantity by American people and its companies. Less exports to America, means jobs in Ireland are at increased risk, and the additional effects of higher unemployment created, will further put strain on Irish government revenues as social welfare money could be more sought and needed.
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Less money around that people will have, could then affect people’s ability to buy items in Ireland, from daily goods to obtaining a roof over their head.
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Americans themselves, will also be affected as they will find their shop items will certainly get more expensive. Trump has warned Americans that things will go this way, but now Americans will quickly be financially hit directly in their pocket.
Sooner or later, world countries will also lessen or stop their sales to the States. America will be more avoided. America will find it far more isolated by global nations. International stock markets are certainly going to be thrown into chaos and inflation across the world is definitely going to rise. Inflation for America is for sure – and the knock-on effects from that alone, will be considerable.
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As Americans will find their goods will get more expensive, they will go and buy more of their own home made goods. This is certainly good for America to some extent, but remember, their own goods have less safety regulations attached and Trump has stupidly sacked entire departments that previously oversaw the safety of manufactured goods.
* Translated, buying some cheap goods in America by Americans, means – sometimes – greater risks too. Overall, as some Americans try to continue buying the usual old brands they know and trust, life will get more expensive indeed.
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.Back in Ireland, our companies will now try sell our goods more so, anywhere but America – but doing this adjustment will take time. Adjustment time will be considerable, and while that adjustment tries to take place, there will be again, greater continued economic instability.
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In response to Trump’s tariffs, the EU will not strike back immediately. However, if USA continues its madness, it’s inevitable that it will. The EU will impose retaliatory tariffs on USA made goods. The rest of the world will certainly buy far less American goods.
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China for example, was already slapped with a Trump 20% tariff. Now, he has additional imposed a further 34% tariff. So, for Americans, mass China made goods, including much needed vehicle/I.T. parts, do remember, will be in total, 54% more expensive.
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The Chinese government is certainly not going to accept this lying down. The world’s biggest single condensed population will alone, drop buying America made goods, possibly in an act of revenge or nationalist feeling, just like Canadians are now already doing, avoiding buying US made goods.
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Less USA bought goods, means Americans will be factory affected along with subsequent consequences from that hit.
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.Back in Ireland, the Irish state will be border competing with UK goods that face a 10% Trump tariff. in other words, that USA made item you buy in the south, will be possibly cheaper up in Northern Ireland. Border businesses could be thus, affected and some might greater struggle to survive. Irish whiskey for example, will now be going up against the likes of Scotch and Bushmills items, which will be hit with only 10pc tariffs.
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When Trump made his rose garden announcement, he lied – nothing unusual there – yet again about many matters. For example, Trump stated that Canadian dairy tariffs were hitting Americans. He stated this in order to try justify his tariffs now imposed on Canada. The truth is that Canadian tariffs would only apply on USA goods if a certain sales was reached – but in the entire business history of Canada, that level has never been reached, so the tariffs that Trump claimed was being applied by the Canadian government, never was and stillness not, actually applied.
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Trump has slapped a tariff on Canada for something that Canada has not actually done. The same crazy situation also applies to other world countries. Trump is lashing out at countries not actually imposing what he says they already are.
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Some of America’s trading partners in Asia are being really battered. Cambodia is facing 49pc, and Vietnam 46pc. Others face the same hit. Again, all this will affect stock markets negatively.
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Politico, an international trusted setup, has quoted four EU sources as saying they were “regularly confused and frustrated” when they tried to pin down Washington on trade negotiation details, as trying to converse at a level of decency, was often “hitting a wall of bureaucracy”. Their words and experience.
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The bottom line is that Trump doesn’t want a deal with other nations, at least not yet. He is ideologically committed to tariffs, he has been for a long time, as he’s mentally convinced that they will be the savior of America. Even when his own people, say they could be the destruction of America!
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A USA, Trump created recession is now higher likely. The knock-on effects of this, if and when it happens, on global trade, will not be small in further effect.
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What’s the EU going to do? Most likely act as a combined force. It won’t initially lash back as other countries certainly will. The EU has already lined up tariffs on €26bn of US goods in response to US tariffs on steel and aluminum, but so far, is holding off because it doesn’t want to provoke a crazy US president to again make things even worse, and given his crazy aging mental state, thus is a real possibility.
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If and when talks fail, then the EU as a combined force, will strike back. Ireland will not go it alone. it will stand united with the EU.
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Will Ireland suffer if a further trade war grows? Absolutely. According to an Aston University study, we are at definite risk. With a full US-EU trade war, we will suffer a 6.6pc drop in exports, a 13pc fall in imports, and our national GDP fall by up to 3pc.
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On a list of one to ten of importance, American themselves have said that the imposition of tariffs, come in at eight place above their economy at number one and control of US inflation in second place.
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What Trump has done to Americans, will cause the largest tax increase to them since 1968.
* 72% of American citizens think that Trump’s actions will raise prices.
* Even 64% of the Republican Party, the GOP, thinks Trump will cause prices to rise in America.
* Just 5% actually think prices will drop.
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As of this morning, the day after Trump’s latest craziness, the Dow futures are seriously down, as are Nasdq and S&P 500 Futures.
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* China has overnight stated with is Trump applied 54% tariff rate, that it will take countermeasures as they say “to safeguard its’ own rights”.
* The EU has stated “If you take on one of us, you take on all of us”.
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Meanwhile, Irelands trade base is more vulnerable to being caught in a crossfire if and when the world’s big economies start taking pot shots at each other, as some likely will.
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Back in America, Trump’s previous crazy office ideas have started over 100+ court cases. The numbers of legal cases against America and Trump’s administration will absolutely increase. This is a total safe bet. All this alone, will take time to process through.
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Add in his weapon (bombs/missiles) backing of Israel, as it further plans to invade more Gaza land,
* add in his attempts to bully Canada, Greenland and the Suez canal,
* along with international stock market, longer instability,
* then take into account his isolationist stance regarding Taiwan which in turn will allow China to invade,
* then take into account his continuing attempts to bully Ukraine in attempt to steal under–soil minerals,
…take all this and much more, killing long established international relationships and friendships, we as individual nations and the globe as a community, face severe unrest and instability for the next four years.
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Two final points to note.
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ONE: The first is that Trump has oddly, NOT tariffed countries that have dictator type leader in charge.
* Russia, North Korea, Iran, Hungry and Belarus have all escaped the wrath of Donald Trump.
If you think this is highly suspicious, you are not alone in that thought. He has instead, tariffed over 50 plus true democratic states while leaving the dictators alone. Food for thought!
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TWO: My ending point is this. The era of Trump is not going to be golden as he sees it. It is going to be even worse than usual, utter chaos from day, to week, to each year. The world will be unstable as Trump’s own crazy present mind. We unfortunately are going to live in greater interesting times, and this is not a good thing.
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Thanks for reading.
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Jeff.